Thus, new modeling should take this induced effect into consideration (e.g., Dietrich 1994 Parsons et al. ( 2011) reported increased seismicity rates in many subregions in the Kanto area. Furthermore, recent seismic activity beneath the Kanto region has been induced by the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake of March 11, 2011. Hence, we here define a flexible 3D hierarchical space–time ETAS model that allows for such effects. However, it is known that earthquake occurrence rates are significantly dependent on the configuration of the interacting and colliding plates beneath the Kanto Plain. They separated depth effects from the horizontal 2D space, and showed that such a separable 3D model fits observations significantly better than the 2D model. ( 2018) applied a 3D space–time ETAS model in the Kanto region. 1), their interactions, and hence forecasting of the occurrence of inter-plate and intraplate earthquakes, are too complex for approaches such as the 2D space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models, as proposed by Ogata ( 2011), which ignores the depths of earthquakes. Because three tectonic plates meet beneath Kanto Plain (see Fig. The Kanto region urgently requires a 3D short- and medium-term seismicity forecasting model. However, there has been little prior study of the spatial distribution of event probabilities associated with such a forecast. Utsu 2002), assumption of a stationary temporal Poisson process, and application of the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law in the focal area. This estimate is based on earthquake records since 1885 (Utsu 1982), a number of historical disastrous earthquakes (e.g. The estimated occurrence probability of such an earthquake, during the next 30 years, is 70–80%. The dense population of the Tokyo metropolis prompted the government’s Earthquake Research Committee ( 2004) to predict, and subsequently update, the long-term probability of an M7 class earthquake beneath the southern Kanto Plain.
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